For those of you (us) who are already in offseason mode, here is Quarterly Sports’ first official NFL Mock Draft. Chances are most of these picks are far from right but that is the sport in a mock draft. The minds behind this are my own and that of Corey O’Patchen. You will hear a lot about Patch if you continue to read this blog. Patch knows his stuff – a lot more than I do at least.
Anyway, Packers and Steelers fans, this may not be for you (yet), but any fan of the other 30 teams should appreciate this.
1. 1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
While Georgia’s A.J. Green would be the most appealing pick at #1, new head coach Ron Rivera is a defensive mind who is expected to find a cornerstone on his preferred side of the ball. Rivera has had success running both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses. Nick Fairley’s dominance in the National Championship game may have helped him leapfrog Green and defensive end Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson) to solidify the top spot in the draft. Fairley has a reputation as a bit of a dirty player and even to take some plays off, but when the 6-foot-5 300 pound defensive tackle turns it on, he is a force against the run and on the pass rush.
2. 2. DENVER BRONCOS: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
John Fox and John Elway could go a lot of ways with their first pick in the Denver front office. Judging by their defense that ranked dead last in the league in virtually every category, the new decision-makers will look to improve the offense later. With Champ Bailey most likely leaving town as a free agent, the rest of the Broncos’ options in the secondary would struggle to start on Peterson’s college team in Baton Rouge. Peterson is a corner with a rare combination of size (6’1” 205 lbs) and speed (4.4 40yd). With the Broncos worrying about two Pro Bowl quarterbacks (Rivers and Cassel) and one of the fastest receiving corps (Oakland) all in the AFC West, going with this shutdown corner is their best bet.
3. 3. BUFFALO BILLS: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Buffalo is content with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (at least for now) and Stevie “The Drop” Johnson and Lee Evans make for a solid receiving combo. The Bills would probably have liked to have seen an offensive tackle with ‘third overall’ potential but that is not in the cards for this draft. That leaves the Bills plenty of options to sure up their hapless defense. Da’Quan Bowers is probably the best fit at #3. He is this draft’s best pass-rusher and one of the best athletes. And he would be a definite upgrade at a defensive end position that has not had a constant since Bruce Smith.
4. 4. CINCINNATI BENGALS: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
The Bengals have enough needs that they will most likely go with the “best available” principle where they just pick the best player left on the board at pick four. A.J. Green is the filet mignon of this year’s draft. He is the most coveted, highly regarded player, which is why he could very well go #1 to Carolina. If Green falls to Cincinnati, they’d be crazy not to take him. Speculations are that neither T.O. nor Chad Ochocinco will not be resigned next season and Green would fit in well with Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley to round out a newer, younger, faster core with a ton of upside.
5. 5. ARIZONA CARDINALS: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
The Cardinals offense was painful to watch in 2010 despite having one of the league’s most explosive players in Larry Fitzgerald. It’s no secret that neither Max Hall nor John Skelton are the long-term (or short-term) answers at quarterback, but instead of reaching for a signal-caller at the fifth pick, Coach Wisenhunt could reach into the NFL’s bag of veteran free agents to throw Fitz the jump ball. Arizona’s best bet would be too sure up their defense with their first round pick. The two most glaring needs are at cornerback and outside backer. Amukamara is, like Peterson, a big fast cornerback who could play opposite DRC to make on the best young corners in the NFC.
6. 6. CLEVELAND BROWNS: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
The sexiest pick at number six for the Browns would be Julio Jones, wide receiver from ‘Bama. I’m sure Colt McCoy and Dawg Pound season ticket holders are crossing their fingers for that, but Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert need to address defensive needs. With a new d coordinator coming to town, speculations are the Browns are going to switch from Rob Ryan’s amoeba defense to a simple 4-3. Regardless of a defensive shift or not, Quinn could play either DE or OLB. He was forced to sit out the 2010 football season for an agent scandal, but think about, would an agent be worried about him if he weren’t ready to kick the NFL in the junk?
7. 7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Draft ”experts” have this-and-that to say about Mallet and how he is a reach at any pick because he is 6-foot-7 and clumsy. Ryan Mallett’s arm is a legitimate rocket that could blow up buildings. Jim Harbaugh would have loved for his boy Andrew Luck to declare so that he could have packaged a deal with Carolina for the first pick, but Harbaugh still wants to bring in his own QB to start his regime in San Francisco. Harbaugh was a QB himself and knows how to develop them. I think that Harbaugh would love to bring in Mallet and make him into the NFL quarterback that he could be.
8. 8. TENNESSEE TITANS: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
The Titans’ front office decided to retain Jeff Fisher and cut former third overall pick Vince Young. Tennessee’s greatest needs are at linebacker, interior line, and quarterback. Gabbert has been flying up draft board and is being considered the most-complete quarterback in the draft. He would fit in the offense beautifully as a pocket passer with a strong and accurate arm. The Titans have two great bookend tackles, a solid run game, and Kenny Britt is becoming a stud receiver. This is a perfect fit for Gabbert and a dream come true for any young QB.
9. 9. DALLAS COWBOYS: Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
There are no offensive tackles worthy of a pick this high, so the Cowboys are more than likely to address their need at five-technique. Dareus is the prototypical five-technique that can stuff the run and is athletic enough to defend the pass. Some boards have him rated higher than Bowers and even Fairley in defensive lineman rankings. Plus, if Dareus can force double teams like, say, Haloti Ngata, then DeMarcus Ware’s dominance will only become more…dominant.
10. 10. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
This just looks good. Julio Jones could go here, a defensive end could go here, a defensive tackle could go here, but none of them would look as good (or as cool) as Killa Cam Newton. He kind of reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger – only Newton is black. His arm is uber-strong and his size and athleticism make him a big play waiting to happen. The Redskins are going to have to get him some sort of weapon to throw to, or even somebody to handoff to, but Newton is a good start for the Redskins to get back into contention.
11. 11. HOUSTON TEXANS: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Texans are switching to a 3-4 defense under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. They are moving Brian Cushing to inside linebacker to play next to DeMeco Ryans. Miller would be a great fit to fill the void left by Cushing’s transition. Miller is a phenomenal pass-rusher and had great success in coverage as well during his senior season at A&M.
12. 12. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
The Vikings have no excuse has to why they struggled so greatly this past season. They really don’t have too many needs. With Favre finally hanging up his cleats (for now), the Vikes could go QB with this pick. I see it more likely that they go out and get one of the veteran quarterback’s on the market though because not too many people have high hopes for this year’s QB class. Instead, the Vikings need to get younger, especially at defensive tackle. The Williams Brothers were the most dominant duo of defensive tackles this decade, but neither is getting any younger. Paea is an athletic defensive tackle that would fit in well in Minnesota’s front seven. Tore up the PAC-10 despite only playing mediocre offensive lineman, but his skill set should translate well to the next level.
13. 13. DETROIT LIONS: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Every Lions’ fans in the world is blowing out birthday candles and looking for shooting stars so that they can wish and pray for Amukamara to fall all the way to this pick. Detroit is heading in the right direction but their need for a cornerback may be the greatest need of any team at any position. But outside of the top two corners, none are really worthy of a pick this high. Detroit will most likely have to settle for another need at outside linebacker. Akeem Ayers would fit in well in the 4-3 defense because he is excellent in space and in coverage. Plus Ndamukong Suh may take on all ten blockers on every play leaving whoever the Lions draft to run around with ease.
14. 14. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Ladies and gentlemen, now introducing the (soon to be) most exciting team in the NFL: The St. Louis Rams. With Josh McDaniels on board as the offensive coordinator (creator of the “Even Matt Cassel can Throw for A Billion Yards Offense”), Sam Bradford will be throwing more deep balls than a rookie Madden player. The offense already has a solid core group (Steven Jackson, three solid receivers, two bookend tackles, and one of the game’s top centers) and Julio Jones could be the one to put it over the top. He could be Randy Moss to Bradford’s new Brady persona. Greatest Show on Turf: Part Deux?
15. 15. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
The Dolphins are a pretty mediocre team. No real weaknesses. No real strengths either besides their left tackle. Ricky Williams’ contract is up and he is probably craving some pot, so this season may have been his last hoorah. Ronnie Brown’s contract is also up, but there is a chance the Dolphins franchise him. That would be a perfect segue for Ingram to take his talents to South Beach, split carries with Brown for a year, and then grab the reins as Miami’s offensive focal point. The Dolphins’ run game took a step back this season, so reassuring that facet would allow for Chad Henne (or whoever is the quarterback next season and beyond) to use a more open and unpredictable playbook to throw to Devone Bess and Brandon Marshall.
16. 16. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
The Jaguars have a solid young group of defensive tackles led by last year’s first round pick, Tyson Alualu, but defensive end play has been shaky. Although they have a first round pick (Derrick Harvey) and a former Pro Bowl selection (Aaron Kampman), an upgrade at defensive end may be their best bet. Kampman can’t seem to avoid the injury bug and Harvey is too inconsistent. Ryan Kerrigan is the model player of hard work and production. A relentless pass-rusher and relentless run-stopper could be what the Jaguars need to sure up their defensive line for years to come. They could also take a quarterback here and work him under David Gerard for a season.
17. 17. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (from Oakland): Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
A preseason top-5 pick, Cameron Heyward fell off a little bit with performance sub-par to expectations. Also, the superb play of Da’Quan Bowers and Marcell Dareus didn’t help Heyward’s case. Some had him falling into round two as of late December mock drafts. Luckily for Heyward, his performance against Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl made him back a lot of money. Heyward was all over the field in his team’s most-viewed game. The Patriots need a five technique to own the line like Richard Seymour during the dynasty years and Heyward may be the man to do it.
18. 18. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
We had a little bit of fun with this pick. Defensive line is probably the Chargers’ most glaring need, but with Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd both potential free agents, Phillip Rivers may need a new deep threat. Baldwin is a combine freak (6-5, 230, 4.5 40-yd). Rivers is a machine in San Diego, always putting up big numbers. Instead of using this pick for a necessity like Drake Nevis or Adrian Clayborn, we think that Jonathan Baldwin would look the best as a Bolt. 19. 19. NEW YORK GIANTS: Drake Nevis, DT/DE, LSU
The New York Giants love and have always loved their defensive linemen. Mathias Kiwanuka and Keith Bulluck are both free agents, so the Giants could also go outside linebacker with this pick. But as I said before, the Giants love their defensive lineman. With Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora on the ends, Drake Nevis – although a bit undersized – could be the defensive tackle that fills in if Barry Cofield is not resigned. If you look at the Giants roster, there is no real “weakness” that should prioritized over any other. They could go offensive tackle, they could go outside linebacker, but considering the Giants recent success being led by their line on defense, Drake Nevis would be right at home.
20. 20. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
The Buccaneers have the youngest team in the NFL. The average age of their starters in 2011 was 24.5 years old. Josh Freeman is on his way to be an elite quarterback and his weapons (Mike Williams, Arellious Benn, Kellen Winslow II, Legarrette Blount) have mega-potential. The Bucs spent their first two picks last year on defensive tackles (Gerald McCoy and Brian Price) in, what I believe, an attempt to sure up the defensive line like the team that won the Super Bowl in 2002. McCoy and Price hope to play the roles of Warren Sapp and Booger McFarland, but who does Tampa Bay hope to be Simeon Rice and Greg Spires on the ends? Adrian Clayborn would fit in perfectly in rebuilding the Tampa 2 to what it once was. Clayborn is a workaholic with a non-stop motor. He is a big boy for a 4-3 end (6-4, 285) but his 4.75 40-yd dash proves that he has the speed to come off the edge and attack the quarterback just like Simeon Rice did 15 ½ times in 2002.
21. 21. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
The Chiefs did well with what they had in 2010. Looking at their roster, no names really stand out. If Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) were to have declared for this year’s draft, I could see the Chiefs drafting him to pose a receiving threat other than Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs could also go way of bringing in a tackle or addressing their weakness at defensive tackle, but unless one of the offensive tackles in the draft tears it up at the combine or if Stephen Paea drops this far, neither position group would be represented well enough to select. Aldon Smith is a relentless pass-rusher that would complement Tamba Hali (saying he re-signs) well.
22. 22. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College
Looking at the Colts’ roster, their isn’t too much youth in Indianapolis. Their defense is sketchy from top to bottom excluding defensive end and middle linebacker. They could go defensive tackle here to help out their run defense. Speculations are that the Colts organization is going to sign Peyton Manning to the most lucrative contract (per year) in NFL history. Now they need to sign some lineman to watch his back. The Colts boasted one of the NFL’s top offensive lines last decade but over the last few seasons Manning’s front five have began to slack. Manning’s numbers were not very Peyton-like this season – partially because of an influx of injuries to his skill guys but also in part to his shaky offensive line play. Costanzo may be this drafts truest left tackle. He is not the most athletic of the bunch but he has a lot of experience and has been highly touted for years. Costanzo could be the last left tackle that Peyton Manning needs for the rest of his career.
23. 23. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)
The Philadelphia Eagles’ front office has done a superb job bringing in talent the last couple of years (Lesean McCoy, Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Graham, etc.). The Eagles are built for success for years to come as long as their quarterback play remains consistent. They now need to address the defensive side of the ball. Defensively, cornerback may be Philly’s greatest need. Brandon Harris is the next cornerback from The U looking to make a splash in the league. With Ellis Hobbs injury problems and Dimitri Patterson a pending free agent, Harris would be a great fit to fill in where the Eagles already lacked depth. Plus, Harris would learn from one of the game’s best – Asante Samuel. But don’t be surprised if the Eagles sure up the interior of their offensive line with this pick.
24. 24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Cam Jordan, DE/OLB, California
How pretty would Mark Ingram look in a black Saints jersey? That is who I’d love to see go here, but it seems that Ingram to the Dolphins is a sure thing (at least in January it looks that way). A defensive end or outside linebacker would be the next best thing. Looking back at this first round, it seems to be the year of the d lineman. Cameron Jordan is just another one of the hard-nosed playmakers on the defensive line. He would compliment Will Smith (current Saints stud d end) perfectly and because of Smith going up against left tackles, Jordan would be able to pick on every team’s weaker tackle on the right side. Don’t be surprised if Jordan’s stock jumps before draft day, because after only two days at Senior Bowl practice Jordan is being called “unblockable” by scouts and experts in Mobile.
25. 25. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
With a 7-9 regular season record, the Seahawks should be picking in the top-10, but because they snuck into the playoffs their draft position is about 15 spots later. This could play into Pete Carroll and the Seahawks’ favor. The Seahawks could go a lot of ways in this draft, but with Matt Hasselbeck being old enough to have grandkids, Carroll would love to get a young signal-caller to work under the veteran for a year. Jake Locker was last year’s consensus #1 overall pick until he opted to stay in school. The extra collegiate season killed Locker’s draft stock (and wallet) because of injuries and inconsistencies. If Locker is still around at pick 25, the quarterback would not have to leave his home state and he would be in a great situation with a young team and a head coach that is bound to attract talented free agents.
26. 26. BALTIMORE RAVENS: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
The Ravens’ secondary turned out to be the death of them this season. Outside of Ed Reed and (at times) Josh Wilson, the Ravens did have too much success against the pass. The worst part is that they have refused to address their need at corner in the draft. In 2011, they should have no choice but to go corner. Aaron Williams may not be the type of prospect that Peterson, Amukamara, or Harris are, but he is not far behind. Harris is tall (6-foot-1) for a corner with good speed, so he should fit in well – especially in the man schemes that Baltimore runs to accommodate their solid pass rush. The Ravens could also go wide receiver at this pick (see: Torrey Smith, Maryland) since T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Donte Stallworth are free agents and Derrick Mason is running out of eligibility.
27. 27. ATLANTA FALCONS: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
Tony Gonzalez isn’t getting any younger. Kyle Rudolph would fit in perfectly as Matt Ryan’s new safety blanket. Rudolph is by far the draft’s highest-rated tight end. He is a big target at 6-foot-5 and quick enough (4.65 unofficial 40) to be a mismatch linebackers in coverage. The Falcons could also go defensive end to add some youth opposite All-Pro John Abraham or they could find a receiver to maybe pull some attention away from Roddy White.
28. 28. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Matt Light is a free agent so the Patriots will most likely take an offensive tackle with one of their first three picks (all in the top 33). Solder is 6-foot-9 with wingspan for days. He would be Tom Brady’s best friends watching the quarterback’s blind side. The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds, so they really could go any way with any pick, but with Tom Brady at QB, chances are that Bill Belichick will spend a top pick on someone to protect Tom Terrific. Also, don’t be surprised in New England goes guard (Pouncey maybe) with this pick. Logan Mankins is also a free agent.
29. 29. NEW YORK JETS: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
This pick doesn’t feel right and chances are, when I’m bored enough to make another mock draft, this pick will change. Rex Ryan is a flashy guy. He likes flashy draft picks (i.e. Mark Sanchez, Kyle Wilson). At 6-3 300 pounds, Liugett could play either nose (maybe a bit undersized) or five technique. He is a run-stuffer with enough athleticism to rush the passer. Miami (FL) defensive end Allen Bailey could go here as well. The question is whether Bailey is more of a 4-3 end or a five technique. The Jets could also go wide receiver with this pick because Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Brad Smith are all free agents or they could go outside linebacker to give the position some youth.
30. 30. CHICAGO BEARS: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
The Chicago Bears defense almost carried one of the league’s most unproductive offenses to the Super Bowl. While Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and Julius Peppers did their job, quarterback Jay Cutler and the rest of the offense struggled to say the least. A lot of people are quick to point fingers at Cutler and his reputation of being a walking turnover – and his new reputation of being a quitter (typical spectators pointing fingers). But I don’t know too many quarterbacks in the league that would have excelled throwing to a receiving core consisting of a Division II standout and a converted defensive back. What’s worse was Cutler’s offensive line. I don’t know if the five bodies in front of the hot-shot quarterback blocked anybody all season. Cutler was sacked 52 times in 15 games. As a result of Cutler’s bumps and bruises, Coach Lovie Smith needs to address the Bears’ offensive line need(s) and Derek Sherrod could be the one to start it all. Sherrod looks to either be a “sink or swim” pick. He has the athleticism to play left tackle and the experience from playing top competition in the SEC but his lack of dominating strength is a concern. Not the most dominating run blocker but athleticism makes things easier on him.
31. 31. GREEN BAY PACKERS: Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
I said it in my first blog post – I think that (even before this year’s playoff success) the Packers are going to be top in the NFC for years to come. They have a stud quarterback, a solid receiving core, and very solid defense. If Mark Ingram is still available at this pick, I wouldn’t put it past the Packers to snag him. He just fits the mold of a cold weather running back. But with what is available (or at least what I think will be) at this pick, it would be smart for Green Bay to sure up their inconsistent offensive line. Mike Pouncey’s brother made him a lot of money this season. It was his brother’s success that turned heads towards Mike. Mike is more dominant and more overpowering than Maurkice, but he isn’t half of the athlete that the Steelers’ center is. But Mike’s strength and overpowering nature would translate beautifully into being and NFL guard, especially in a cold weather city that requires that extra “toughness” factor like Green Bay.
32. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Some spectators are blind to the fact that the Steelers organization has, piece by piece, forming one of the most promising, young offenses in the NFL. Now they need to worry about having the black and yellow defense take a dip in the fountain of youth. Last year, the Steelers grabbed Jason Worilds (DE, VaTech) in the second round – probably because paying both James Harrison and Lamar Woodley is unrealistic either next year or the following. But with Lawrence Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and Worilds, Pittsburgh has begun to get the bodies they will need in the future. Jimmy Smith would not only give them a young player, but a young player to fill the Pittsburgh defense’s only real weakness – pass coverage, particularly at cornerback.
* Packers and Steelers' order is subject to change pending on outcome of Super Bowl on February 6
